Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 0.044106 0.050366 0.057249 0.065389 0.074762 0.085231 0.097828
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.034650 0.043209 0.053527 0.066923 0.083913 0.104825 0.132636
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.028680 0.037939 0.049814 0.066241 0.088503 0.117805 0.159593
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.025606 0.035547 0.048961 0.068517 0.096518 0.135500 0.194466
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.021868 0.031603 0.045308 0.066185 0.097500 0.143220 0.215941
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.019260 0.028845 0.042858 0.065063 0.099789 0.152718 0.240836
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.016770 0.025924 0.039763 0.062476 0.099349 0.157768 0.259124
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.015835 0.025244 0.039942 0.064910 0.106963 0.176180 0.301291
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.015003 0.024615 0.040095 0.067252 0.114601 0.195395 0.347212
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.014259 0.024033 0.040233 0.069531 0.122314 0.215519 0.397269
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.013128 0.022672 0.038906 0.069092 0.125122 0.227210 0.433177
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.012221 0.021602 0.037963 0.069203 0.128881 0.240958 0.474671
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.011303 0.020448 0.036794 0.068845 0.131858 0.253847 0.516831
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.010777 0.019957 0.036784 0.070680 0.139304 0.276352 0.582075
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.009972 0.018863 0.035534 0.069951 0.141524 0.288588 0.627129
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.009625 0.018607 0.035851 0.072362 0.150427 0.315645 0.708642
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.008760 0.017254 0.033891 0.069892 0.148724 0.319875 0.738693
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.008120 0.016289 0.032612 0.068704 0.149633 0.329863 0.783589
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.007386 0.015070 0.030704 0.065963 0.146773 0.331015 0.807182
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.007217 0.015010 0.031198 0.068541 0.156294 0.361823 0.909304
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.007045 0.014927 0.031631 0.071022 0.165871 0.393941 1.019743
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 0.006874 0.014828 0.032019 0.073436 0.175566 0.427554 1.139421
2025-05-11 00:00:00+00:00 0.006486 0.014218 0.031220 0.072971 0.178136 0.443665 1.213664